most apparent "bulls" don't think prices are going to the moon now either. We had an exceptional run, and just like stocks being out of the market for just 1 year can seriously affect your long term returns.
Its obvious we've had one heck of a price recovery and in some places like Melbourne, well beyond recovery.
In regards to world house prices, that's a huge subject that has many things needed to be considered beyond econ 101. Australia does have high house prices, simply because we haven't had any falls. But comparing to world house prices like demograpia, which I find very very poor and way to simplified. It does not take into consideration the composition of housing, sizes (we have very large houses - ie new housing has doubled last 25 yrs) and much larger plots still. As an example, the bears love to mention Japan, and even after 20 yrs of property price deflation, a house in Tokyo of similar land and proportions would still sell for multiple millions if you could even find one to compare. Its simply a different market, and a huge and naive assumption to compare on price alone.
I would agree right now, property will give average or below returns on "average" next 5 years after this run, jmo.
That's to be expected I think.
It also depends on what you do with property. Again there are so many factors to make better than average returns. If you are just sitting in your 3bd suburban home for next 5 years, probably expect below average or just above inflation. (3-4%)
but I can't see a crash right now...Sayce and the uber bears have even given back ground lately to 20% lately from 40-50%.
a cooling back to normal, and a end of year return of around 8-10%.
