Bear market rally tonight, page-6

Hi Munch,

Tonight, the only exciting piece of economic news coming out of the US will be UBS Warburg's "Index of Investor Optimism".

Tomorrow, the raft of economic filings will increase with:
1)
Redbook Store Sales;
2)
UBSW/BTM Store Sales;
3)
Consumer Confidence (anticipating 107, compared to last month's 109.8); and
4)
Existing Home Sales (expecting 5.68m for May).

On Wednesday, we have:
1)
FOMC results from the Federal Reserve (neutral setting antiicpated with no change in immediate policy settings);
2)
Mortgage Applications;
3)
Durable Goods Orders for May;
4)
Durable Goods (ex Transport), for May; and
5)
New Home Sales, for May.

On Thursday, we should be expecting:
1)
Initial Jobless Claims (June 22);
2)
GDP (Final) for q1cy02 (5.6%, anticipated);
3)
GDP Price Deflator (02Q1) (Final) (1.0%, anticipated); and
4)
Help-Wanted Index, for May (ie: job vacancies).

On Friday, the following is expected:
1)
Personal Income (May) (+0.3%, anticipated);
2)
Personal Spending (May) (nil%, anticipated);
3)
Univ of Mich Sentiment (Jun) (Final) 9:45 AM (90.8+ anticipated - but anything above this will be positisvely regarded); and
4)
Chicago PMI (Jun) (58.0, anticipated, vs 60.8, previously).

Of this week's raft of economic data, most influential will be the guidance offered by the FOMC on Wednesday.

From a leading indicator /economic sentiment perspective, Tuesday's consumer confidence, and Friday's Michigan sentiment results will be most significant.

As an immediate indicator of the curability of consumer spending, Tuesday's store sales and housing details for May will be significant, along with Wednesday's housing and mortgage results. The significant of the income figures on Thursday, along with this week's jobless claims will also provide significant input into what we see this week.

Thursday's GDP results will also have an influential bearing particularly if the FOMC leaves rates unchanged on Wednesday, and durable goods' sales are up for May, whilst the latest jobless claims remain under 400k.

At this stage, therefore, I would be anticipating Thursday to be a good trading day for Wall Street, spilling over into our markets on Friday.

As for tonight, the market will be moved more by corporate reports rather than by economic sentiment. It could, therefore, move either way, but unlikely if on any pronounced basis.