Volt was musing the other day about the year fib count since 1974 and how lows are rare in 8 or 9 years.......I have since been contemplating this a bit myself.....
Firstly in an attempt to figure out how long this bear could possible run. From the 1929 high to the 1932 low was 1040 days.....this is getting very close to 2 x armstrong 8.6 month periods. From the jan 2000 high to the 10/10/2002 low was exactly 1000 days....or 2 x Armstrong radii as I like to label it. I note that if we go 1000 days from the 2007 high on 11/10/07 we come to 7/7/2010. Two things I will note about this date. To start with there does seem historically to be a fair few lows in 0 years...and secondly this date is only 1 day off the anniverary of the 1932 low. As this bear is already the second worst in history, and may yet be the worst, that fact may be very significant.
So thinking on from there I conclude that if we were to end the bear on 7/7/2010 then we certainly could not continue the way we are going at this time without some significant rally occurring at some point. I have been doing some cycle analysis and have come up with some dates that are hot spots. Laundry's 29/12/08 and 21/1/09 and the pair of 10/3/09 and 17/3/09 we have already discussed to death....the next high energy pair I see will be 28/5/09 and 14/6/09 with the latter being hot hot hot....then 14/8/09.
I have been trying to think out what dates are likely to be highs and which lows and so I have rethought the march lows........
Laundry's 29/12/08 I am still thinking will be a high. I believe the current chart patterns have rising wedges all over the shop so it will be down from there I reckon.....but I now think the low may be 21/1/09.
I was reading an article some time back that stated bear market rallies rarely last more than 8 weeks. It was not lost on me that 8 weeks is 56 days which is very close to fib 55 days which is probably the real number at work here. whilst march 17 this year was the low march 10 was the lowest close. from 10/3 to the 2/5 (may top) was nearly 55 days. both the 73 and 37 bears also had one decent bear market rally and both were just a couple of days either side of 55 days. I conclude therefore that 55 days is a period consistent with bear market rallies.....there will be 55 days from 21/1/09 to 17/3/09. History tells me that there is a good chance this may in fact be a decent bear market rally. Fundamentally if we have fallen into a deep low by 21/1 then I am thinking the inauguration on the 20/1 could in fact be the trigger for the 55 day rally......
If jan to march is to see a rally then it stands to reason that after that period should be another fall. The next pair of dates have numerous cycles pointing to them (28/5/2009 and 14/6/2009)...I think they may come as a pair as there is 17 days between them. there was 17 days between the May double top and there was 17 days between the 73 bear rally double top.....but in this case I am thinking it may be a double bottom. I am thinking that this period from mach to June will be a mirror of the 1990 bear. There is 224 months from the 1990 top to 17/3/1990. In 1990 there was A low 72 days later (72 is an Armstrong number for decline) and THE low 86 days from the top on 11/10/1990 (there's that 11/10 gain !!). The low came on a friday so I think it really may have wanted to be on the following monday or 89 fib days from the top. there is 224 months from the 1990 72 day low on the 28/5/09 and from THE low there is 224 months to 11/6/09....had the 1990 bear ended at fib 89 days then 224 months would be bang on 14/6/2009 but both at the count start and count end week ends have gotten in the way....the 14th of June 2009 will be a Sunday. I got a few various cycle counts landing on the 12th (friday) and the 15th (monday) as well as the 14th.
I don't have an opinion what will happen next after that.....yet... LOL.... but one more thing I do note is that there is 55 weeks (out by a coupla days) from 14/6/09 till the 7/7/2010....which is where I started.
There is more pieces to this puzzle that I have discovered but reading back over this post it all seems confusing enough so i will leave it at that for now.
(20min delay)