I think given there has been a lot of waiting and limited visible progress, seeing holders lose patience and exit is not unexpected.
Though, given I am aware who the sellers are and the low volumes, I don't think it is too much to worry about, just normal market reaction to delays. I would need to see some top holders, analysts or “insiders” selling to worry (which I am not!).
I am the first to admit even I am losing patience and while management have not been good on some timelines (they aren’t alone there) that doesn’t mean my view on PRL has changed...I think it is important to reflect on the progress made in a relatively short time-frame (1-year) vs the share price over the same period:
(1) As at 27 August, 2013 we were trading at 11c, hoping the company would find a source rock and mature hydrocarbon system;
(2) Late 2014, following the first core-hole whcih confirmed a working petroleum system across some of PRL’s licenses the stock had a great run up to around 16-20c;
(3) Further value was then added through further core-holes (both SEI and Ancap) confirmation of three layers of thermally mature source rocks in the oil window, excellent porosity and permeability both above and below the shale and free oil being identified in two additional core-holes extending over 90% of their net 2.1 million acres;
(4) Not to mention a handy independently certified prospective resource estimate highlighting an enormous 3TCF target in the Tesorillo project, Spain;
(5) Consequently, we were trading between 20-25c for most of 2014.
(6) Following a frustrating transition between core-holes and seismic and protracted Spain negotiations, as typically with these types of situations, my thesis is holders got sick and tired of waiting and/or lost their nerve and the SP was sold back on relatively low volume down to a 2014 low of 13.5c, or a $60 mill market cap(!), effectively erasing all the gains over the 12-months as listed (1-5) above.
Seems to me to be quite undervalued now (RSI 35.7) and one could argue the share price should be at least where it was prior to a Spain farm-out being priced in given the protracted negotiations (16-20c)… and if you see the excellent preliminary results as de-risking the seismic and a precursor to a successful outcome, then PRL has good prospects of exceeding the previous high of 27c or higher if you like me you believe management and price in a Spain and/or Uruguay farm-outs. I am expecting management will start getting a first cut of the initial data in early September and sufficient data to volumetrically assess the scope and scale and delineate a contingent resource late October to early November. So very soon.
Probably at its most de-risked stage yet ,so good investment at these levels IMO. Upon seismic acquisition completion within 7 weeks, on the words of management at the MMC and a few "whispers" from O&G contacts on the timing of majors taking strategic stakes in assets, I'm expecting positive seismic results (based on prelim results and 3.5m being such massive potential) resulting in considerable interest from majors and of course the appropriate CoS% and valuation uplifts.
PRL Price at posting:
13.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
