Beer & Co. Report, page-49

I suppose if the market behaved rationally there would be fewer opportunities as potentially big as this one for those that take the effort to consider where this could all end up - and at any stage in the next 3 months.

Imagine a biotech that was running a clinical trial and promised results "any time in the next 3 months" rather than a likely end date as they typically do. I'd be surprised if anyone who had faith in the proposition and management would sit on the sidelines waiting to take a position until after the results have been released. I'm sitting on BOT and basically waiting until the end of Oct to see where their acne trial will end up. There is certainty in that timeline - and many folk would already be on board patiently (or not so patiently) waiting. But the likely upside between now and the end of the year is IMO certainly not in the multiples - even if gains will be solid on a positive result.

But by contrast here we have GEV - and the SP trajectory could change in an instant. And with no warning other than their shipbuilding letter of intent that basically says "We could hit that inflection point anytime between now and Christmas - it could be on Monday or it could be on Christmas Eve. But know that we have many irons in the fire and skin in the game - and are keener than most of you to make this happen."



Personally I'd rather be on the register for the next 90 days - even if I have taken a bit of a hit on this - than find myself on the sidelines waiting for opening after the announcement has been released - hoping I can somehow not get left behind horribly. The few times I've tried have not been the most dignified - nor the most rewarding.

When I bought GEV I never thought it would be at 14.5c - so perhaps its my optimism bias that makes me more intrigued about the possibility of the SP being 4 x that by the end of this year than I am concerned about it remaining near these levels for much longer.

Geez....it could be Monday for all we know....now there's something to lose sleep about if you've sold out too early.

All IMO - DYOR etc etc....