Beetaloo or bust: the route to commercial success for an Australian shale play, page-130

Global Context

The current global LNG trade volume stands at approximately 400 MTPA, with three major players: the United States, Australia, and Qatar. Each of these countries accounts for roughly 20% of the market share, with the U.S. slightly ahead.

We are seeing the largest growth in global LNG trade ever recorded. The LNG industry tends to increase in waves:

• The 2009–11 increase of 73 MTPA was largely driven by Qatar.
• The 2015–19 increase of 145 MTPA was driven by the U.S. and Australia.
• The present global LNG expansion (2024–30) could surpass 200 MTPA.

Qatar’s Diversification Plan

The Qatari leadership has increasingly sought to diversify the country’s economy — venturing into sports, telecommunications, and logistics — even as it continues to increase exports of energy commodities. The country’s leaders have also demonstrated a commitment to achieving diversification through large-scale infrastructure projects. Their decision to grow Qatar’s LNG capacity — and increase annual production from 77 million metric tons to 142 million metric tons by 2030 — must be understood in the broader context of the push for economic diversification, which requires the investment capital that LNG exports can provide.

Market Opportunities for Qatari LNG

The Qatari plan intersects with several key developments in the broader energy market that bolster Qatar’s potential to dominate the LNG market in the coming years:

• The Biden administration’s decision to pause review of export authorizations to nonfree trade agreement countries (including China) could reduce the growth rate of U.S. LNG production and exports, allowing Qatar to take advantage of a potential gap in the market. The pause could undercut growth of a few American LNG firms, but it will not directly affect LNG projects in operation or under construction in the U.S.
• Japan — historically the largest consumer of LNG and a pivotal player in the development of Qatar’s LNG sector in the 1990s — is expected to have reduced growth in demand for LNG in future years due to its move towards renewable energy and blue ammonia. As a result, Qatar is now focusing on the broader East Asian energy market: Chinese offtakers, for example, have signed a 27-year deal for Qatari LNG, whereas Japanese firms feature much less in the Qatari plans.
• Declining LNG prices are helping to establish new markets in developing countries in Asia that might otherwise turn to coal.

https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/global-energy-qatars-lng-expansion