Firstly let me state upfront that I am no lover of management and think that what ASX listed companies get away with is totally outrageous. This I think is brought about via huge super funds and the structure of the tax laws via franking credits. We as retail investors at times look closely at the return for leaving our money ina bank and tax on that versus the 30% credit we can get. Not applicable here but it skews the market valuations IMO.
However it is also not clever to push out good news when the fish are not biting and IMO the speculative end of the market has been dismal since May this year. Risk is a bad word again.
How unhappy would this forum have been had they pushed out all the good news into a falling market and they had little or no impact.
However there is a time frame - The last reserve data is early September and we are 25 August but we are wanting information.Its also reporting season for the big boys in August - I dont think RFE will get airspace anyway.
So we send emails to management - their choice is ignore it as you have not got your timing sorted and the market keeps having a wild ride or replying and putting up a date that is now fixed in concrete. I would delay replying or if it was truly a very well run company I would send a reply that indicated that we are awaiting ... and cannot at this stage comment as it is sensitive information and we are accordingly processing it diligently (much like the AEC that doesnt seem to work anything but 9 to 5 after the day of the election).
I think that this forum has become captured by fear and that we are all driven by the sp - It goes up and I think the accumulator is in play. A seller appears and we think there is bad news to follow - is it a top 20 in the know?
I have done as much work on the fundamentals as I can, I am not in the brigade that views a takeover and super sized multibagger. I am in the camp that says whats under there seems to have a value range of 80c to $1.50 and thats good enough for me. The infrastructure spend is important and it seems that you chose to spend on a plan - I can find nothing that suggests they are breaching any plan they set out to do.
So let me ask the fundamental questions:
1. If the general market was less volatile and was trending slowly upwards or sideways and upwards would we be so unhappy?
2. Is no news actually bad news?
3. Is what we have had actually no news?
4. What fact has changed to want us to start the thoughts around firing management?
5. What valuation change has made us feel that the value is dropping.
6. We all knew that this share moved up on small volumes and down on small volumes so why are we so surprised now?
7. What is the hard fact/s that is seeming to get everyone (by the way including me) so uncomfortable at the moment?
I can name a few shares speculative that have had an equally bad run. SSN has lost 17.5% in the past month but has no logic to it either. JPR the favorite dog or darling has had a shocker since april and admittedly the farmin and management announcements havent been helping but 8c to 3 c is really cause for concern.
So is it that we are overweight in this and we are nervous because we took the decision to load up beyond where we should - I have and should I therefgore balme this on management?
RFE Price at posting:
50.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held