By your reckoning then the price is pretty likely to be 80 or 85...

By your reckoning then the price is pretty likely to be 80 or 85 cents and if the full $30M is raised then likely to be 35M shares or 17% of the expanded register. Now that's a tidy stake in a company, any indication on the identity, a who to go with the when & price Tibbs?

I see RCF as a natural seller of their stake to this new major shareholder, provided they're a miner of any repute, nice capital growth from 61c in November 2008 to be able to get out at 80-90cents (floor price) now, and we're all agreed they got it 'too cheap' back then and so we've have to come up with this plan B cap raising to forego selling the farm too cheap.

You may recall I argued some time back that the cap raising around this price (and lower to 60+c) was preferable to the 45c floor of the second tranche and therefore still do-able and that I expected some drills & "investor relations" to push the SP & therefore cap raising price into the $1+ territory, well no drills, no spectacular 'investor relations' just a loan covenant condition and a self created 90 day window brings us to this. It's now all about the identity of the $30M buyer.

You've asserted they'll buy more on market, hey, we all hope for that.

Just a thought, but in this world of SP manipulation where the buyer of the $30M stake is suppressing the SP so as to gain more of the expanded register would not, supposing the buyer is not RCF, RCF be trying to counter any suppression and in fact by conspiring to push the SP higher (let alone any other major holder of shares) and by this fact any major (who mostly sit on the board and therefore know the identity of the $30M buyer) also be wanting the SP to be as high as possible? Wouldn't there be a "sellers strike" by just such well informed major holders. would not the company be flooding the market with any positive spin & positive drills?

Or maybe the price, volume & buyer was set when & IMHO before the deal was put to the vote. Whatever.. we are all outside the loop and must speculate to accumulate,, bet big to get big,, stack em up to rack em up.

Have you done any background on RCF to know if they're likely to sell their stake to a major in such a scenario, I think they're likely to hold to the BFS