Lenzetto is an interesting opportunity - hadn't really taken...

Lenzetto is an interesting opportunity - hadn't really taken much notice to the announcement in Sept - your reference to it inspired me to do a little further digging:

Acrux announced on 7 September 2015, that Lenzetto has received multiple marketing approvals in European territories, triggering milestone payments totalling US$ 2m.
Lenzetto had been licensed exclusively in Europe to Gedeon Richter.
Lenzetto is the Company's estradiol spray for treating menopause symptoms that has been licensed exclusively in Europe to Richter.
Lenzetto has received multiple marketing approvals in European territories, triggering milestone payments totalling US$ 2 million
Initial launches are planned for the first half of 2016, following pricing and reimbursement approvals.

So how big is this opportunity for Acrux?
Based on 2014 IMS data, the European (including Russia) estrogen only HRT market, had annual sales of over EUR 85 million.
According to Gedeon Richter’s press announcement Lenzetto is estimated to generate peak European sales of 10 million euros by 2020.
So 10m EUR is c. 12% of the 2014 market (assuming 3% growth out to 2020 – that would a 10% peak share assumption)
We don’t know what royalty % is in place – but if you assume a 15% (conservative figure) then Acrux could expect to receive 1.5m EUR pa (A$2.3m pa) for this product by 2020.

So what value should we ascribe to this product in Europe?
assume 3%pa share penetration (starting from 1% 2016), reaching 10% 2020 and then fading back to 1% in 2030 with 3% market growth and Acrux receives a 15% royalty
Then this is worth A$11m NPV or 6.5c per share (excluding the US2m milestone payment)
or another way of looking at it - in 2020 - A2.3m pa represents c. 1.4c additional divs per share

nothing to get too excited about but it all helps!!!