Interesting take from MS - they are picking a 50m milestone...

Interesting take from MS - they are picking a 50m milestone payment in 2018 - although the got is wrong as it is in USD not AUD...

Valuation 11/18/2015

Our fair value estimate for Acrux stands at AUD 1.10. Our valuation includes a consideration of the company's three other products: namely, Estradiol MDTS (US), otherwise known as Evamist; Recuvyra; and Estradiol MDTS (outside of the US). These products are marketed, respectively, under licence by KV Pharmaceuticals, Eli Lilly and Gedeon Richter. On a combined basis, the contribution of these three products to our fair value estimate is negligible. Our valuation does not include a consideration of the R&D pipeline, given that it is in an early stage of development. Our base case does, however, assume an AUD 50 million milestone payment in 2018 from Eli Lilly for reaching undisclosed global sales hurdles, which distorts valuation metrics. Nonetheless, our base case generates a five-year compound annual growth rate in revenue of about 4%. An average EBITDA margin of 88% over the same period reflects Acrux's operating cost base, given its generic-focused product development strategy.

http://analysisreport.morningstar.c...region=aus&culture=en-US&productcode=MLE&cur=