bell direct, page-7

Hi ya 101
Great to read yours and others input its appreciated.

I guess sustainable world growth is driven by by two factors - population increases and rising standards of living. Multiplication of these two factors gives a GDP growth rate. The last decade this growth rate was high due to debt providing an effective leverage to the second factor. ie the standard of living rose beyond a natural or sustainable level because excessive amounts of debt were used.

Now we have a period of extended deleveraging and low growth that will bring us back to the long term average.

On your point about the US housing market - sure there is currently a surplus of housing in the market but with they will work through this surplus stock sooner than later. Migration ensures that eventually the demand catches up with available supply. Once this happen and the resodential market picks up new construction will decrease the unemployment rate.

China is a harder story to understand because it half functions like a free market and half like a command economy. Generally though I think people underestimate the huge shift in urbanisation taking place and the amount of time this still has to move. Cheers.

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