bullruns,
thanks for posting this link. It's a good read. To me, the numbers found on page 22 are the most important. In particular, BP's estimate of adjusted forward earnings. They estimate the following:
FY16e 4.2cps
FY17e 7.47cps
FY18e 9.42cps
The growth rate in EPS is exceptional 78% for FY17 & 26% for FY18.
If you then go back and read their assumptions on growth in markets (i.e. sales) and margins BP have been extremely conservative. There's got to be + or - an additional 25-30% in impact of sales & margins which will boost these numbers significantly.
The key is:
1. confirming NPAT for FY16 of $29.6m or $0.042 per share (BP forecast FY16 result)
2. forward guidance from the company that IF sales growth of at least 18% p.a. (BP assumption on page 4 of the report)
3. achieving a modest market share estimate for fresh milk sales in the USA & UK of 1.5% by FY21e (BP estimate on page 4)
If A2M hits these 3 targets then I expect to see a solid re-rating of the share price by the market. If A2M significantly exceed these targets, then we longs are in for a good time.
Patience will be rewarded.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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