Bell Potter Analysis

For what it's worth here's the latest ATS analysis from Bell Potter. Interested in what you all think. I can post the whole thing if anyone's interested.

17 August 2020Australis Oil & Gas(ATS)Doing better than its USA peers Recommendation Buy(Buy)Price$0.029Valuation$0.10(previously $0.40)Risk Speculative Analyst Peter Arden613 9235 1833AuthorisationStuart Howe613 9235 1856GICS Sector Energy Expected Return Capital growth245%Dividend yield0%Total expected return245%Company Data & Ratios Enterprise value$55mMarket cap$29mIssued capital986mFree float56%Avg. daily val. (52wk)$218k12 month price range$0.007 -$0.24Price Performance BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED ACN 25 006 390 7721AFSL 243480DISCLAIMER:THIS REPORT MUST BE READ WITH THE DISCLAIMER ON PAGE 9THAT FORMS PART OF IT.Page 1(1m)(3m)(12m)Price (A$)0.030.020.23Absolute (%)11.526.1-87.4Rel market (%)8.412.7-80.7

No solace,even as one of most efficient shale oil producers ATS showed with its program of new wells in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) in the USA completed late in 2019that in bettering the TMS benchmark type curve on a normalised daily basis, the company’s production ranks the TMS as having amongst the best rates of all the unconventional USA oil-producing basins. ATS can produce TMS oil a ta low direct cash cost of about US$15/bbl, far better than most onshore unconventional producers.Field operating costs were only US$7.87/bbl from curtailed output in 2Q20, enabling ATS to make a small positive operating EBITDA(US$1.5m) with its hedges despite the dire oil prices. The dramatic collapse in USA oil prices has savaged ATS’s operating margins and made it less likely any prospective partners will join the company to monetise the over 400 prospective net sites representing over 200 million barrels of oil Reserves and Resources until oil prices improve substantially.

USA oil production unlikely to regain No 1 producer status Having lifted its oil production to be the world’s No 1 producer at the expense of the traditional global giants in OPEC+in the early part of 2020, USA oil production has contracted sharply from the dual effects of the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russiaandthe massive oil demand destruction from COVID-19impacts. Oil price recovery has been better than expected but depends on further cuts to oil production.

Investment thesis: Spec. Buy, Val n$0.10/sh (prev. $0.40)Despite being able to achieve impressive low operating costs in the TMS, monetisation of it by ATS awaits much higher oil prices. The company has made significant reductions in overheads and operating costs and restructured and reduced its debt toUS$23m at 30 June 2020, giving it net debt of about A$26m.In revising our forecasts for TMS production, we have incorporated revisedoil prices and FX rates,a higher discount rate of 12%,and higher risk factors reflecting the current uncertainty. We now see ATS incurring losses of about US$6-8m per year toFY22withtheWTI oil price gradually improving over the next few years as the world economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.We have retained our assumption that ATS raises additional equity in the near term but don’t see that as imperative. Our NPV-based valuation is reduced by 75% to $0.10/share and our recommendation is moved to Speculative Buy