Bell Potter downgrade 23 November 2015, page-157

"You fail to take any positive. It takes a LOT of effort, yet you say I am posting without reward! Clearly there is an implication there is reward for your efforts. Care to elaborate?"

Not that I owe you, or anybody, any justification for my participating in a public discussion board whose very existence serves that exact end, I will do you the courtesy (for the umpteenth time) of doing so anyway:

I am an active (and hopefully, constructive) member of this online community of people who have an interest in engaging with one another on the subject of investing in publicly listed companies, and the very wide and broad ambit of opinion that it involves.


I do so because it:

1. is intellectually stimulating,

2. offers me the opportunity to learn from others, (and in doing so, to become a better investor myself),

3. helps me remain current and abreast of developments in relation to companies in which I may seek to become a shareholder at some stage,

4. provides me the opportunity to share my substantial (if I may say so myself) personal investment experiences with younger investors so that they may avoid the sorts of mistakes I made when I started out my personal investing journey (and that makes me feel good to think that I may be putting something back into the personal investing arena... the arena that has been so very good to me),

5. is fun, really great fun and provides plenty of entertainment

6. gives me something to do when I am not busy with my other recreational interests,

7 provides me with an outlet for financial writing, something I've always enjoyed but have been too lazy to formalise in published form.


Now, to preempt your next question (which you've asked tens of times, and which I've also answered an equal ), why necessarily MSB?

Are you ready?

Here goes (I think it might sound familiar to you):


I think that Mesoblast could be a prolific business one day....when (and if) it gets to a point of self-sustaining commercialisation.

It will have a simply sensational business moat.

(And far, far better business model than, say... oh I dunno, let's pick a random example...er...um... let's say Blackmores. Verily, what Blackores is today is an insult to what Mesoblast might be one day.)

Mesoblast, on reaching commercial self-sustainability, will be able to grow its Revenues, Profits, Surplus Capital Generation and Dividends for decades to come.

As such, its intrinsic value will rise for a loooong time and it will create untold wealth for its owners.

My intention is to become a shareholder in the company at that juncture of self-sustaining commercialisation.

However, my investment process strictly precludes me from owing underfunded businesses (You've heard of the sage fiscal advice, "Never depend for your finances on the kindness of strangers?" Sadly, in this case the results speak for themselves).

So, I will not invest before the company is able to fund itself organically.

Because - until that point - it is not possible for me to dimension the ongoing potential downside risks in the business.

That has been my position since the share price was several multiples higher than it is today, and it remains my position today.

But in the meantime, while I wait for the company to get to where it needs to be, financially, before I am able to buy it, I participate on the MSB threads to keep abreast of developments, and to learn from more knowledgeable fellow participants.

For example, just today I learnt something very important from a fellow poster (@figures is the name of the friendly chap/lady) who conducted some value-adding analysis on the potential royalty revenues emanating out of Japan and kindly disclosed the assumptions behind his calculations. Given my penchant for deriving enterprise intrinsic value this is very valuable and useful information that I wouldn't have got from reading the newspaper. Or visiting the company's website, even.

On yet another example, some other half-decent geezer (of similar age demographic to me, I think), called @thecouncilgritter (don't ask) once offered some insights into Celgene that I hadn't considered (I happened to not agree with his views, but at least he challenged my thinking).

And then there's @Harymeso, who kindly provided some interesting feedback from the most recent AGM.

And so on...

You see, investing to me is a bit like building a jigsaw puzzle, but one that doesn't have the picture on the lid of the box to help you:

When you start off you don't know what it is you will be seeing at the end.

And then all the bits of information about the company you come across - by reading the annual reports, studying the financial statements (and, very importantly, the accompanying notes), scrutinising the company announcements, observing the world around you, and (not least) by engaging with others, either in investing clubs, on the golf course, around the barbecue, participating in great forums such as HotCopper - all the bits of information you gather, these are akin to the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle you are building in your mind's eye.

And at some stage, a vague "picture" of the stock starts to emerge in your mind, and then it becomes clearer and clearer as more information "pieces"are found... and then suddenly enough pieces have been found and the picture becomes obvious:

Viola! It's a Majestic Castle!
(Or a Yacht with Colorful Sails. Or a Breathtaking Landscape. Or A Field of Bright Flowers)

And that's why I like coming to the MSB threads: because ever now and then I find a new piece for my puzzle. And, naturally, I hope that I am able drop a few valuable pieces of my own for others to pick up and use for their respective MSB puzzles.


Hope this provides you with all the clarity you so desperately seek.



"The crowd you managed to scare out of their shares with your horror stories won't be thanking you when MSB starts to really take off."

Oh yes, thanks for reminding me.

While I have said this many times before, I almost forgot to repeat it: everything I have said here and in any other thing I've ever written or said, provides the basis for my investing decisions alone.

As you well know I have never - not once - offered an opinion on where the MSB share price might go, and what investors should, accordingly, do.

If people want to buy the stock at $1, $2, $3, $4, $5, $6, $7 ...etc, or at ANY price and if they want to sell it at any price then they should do as they see fit.

All I am doing is sharing what works for me and my particular personal circumstances, mental disposition and tolerance of risk.

(Although I am tempted to be a bit cheeky and say that those who did happen to sell when I was first declaring an unwillingness to buy will be maybe a bit more than just a teeny bit happy that they did so, and now have the chance to buy in at significantly lower levels... NOT that I am advising them to do so. Nor am I advising them not to do so. I am advising them of nothing.)

For here's the big disclaimer:

MADAMSWER HAS NO IDEA WHERE THE SHARE PRICE IS HEADING.



(PS. To preempt the snide observation, I have crossed several time zones. That's why.)