From what I can see, NAN is priced in such a fashion that people...

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GrazerAu

206 Posts.

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14/10/18

01:41

Post #: 36115977
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Originally posted by Sojourner ↑

Bell Potter seems to want them to pay out the cash which they haven't and they think growth will slow much quicker so they'd rather be out at this price. That's fine. I prefer they continue to invest in R&D and hold cash for pushes into other markets when they need it so I'll continue to hold.

By all means read all these reports, they are useful in helping to identify factors you may not have considered and to get a sense of what the market is thinking. But be careful in just blindly following their advice - you should make up your own mind and not let others make it for you.

What do you think of the report?

I still remember when some of the analysts covering NAN freaked out when they decided to drop exclusivity with GE and went the hybrid approach. They screamed "RISK" and cut their price targets. Turns out it was an awesome switch in strategy. GE was clearly dragging its heels (selling trophon was never going to be a big part of GE's business), and NAN managed to do well with its own sales team and capture a much larger profit margin by not having to give it up to GE.

Not long after when it the numbers were in, the analysts then did another backflip and suddenly upgraded their price targets. All the subscribers that did what those analysts suggested ended up selling low, buying high.

Sometimes those guys get it right, but just as often they get it wrong too, but that's what makes the market.

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From what I can see, NAN is priced in such a fashion that people are expecting their next product to be as successful as their current trophon. We do not know what their next product line is or what its profitability is, yet we are pricing it in.

For a decent return - eg 10%+ per year, one would be expecting to pick this up at <$3 per share to account for the risk of future product failures.

I'll admit, I am very green in this investing space (<2 years) but I am starting to realise that there is more to valuing a company than just excel spreadsheets. . . Qualitative factors have a much greater influence than people seem to think.

Last edited by GrazerAu: 14/10/18

NAN Price at posting: $3.22 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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