Starting a new thread in the spirit of looking forward, not backward (while I acknowledge that the IPO was a dismal failure and a painful lesson for many (myself included), I am hoping this thread can focus on the go-forward prospects within this thread - noting some of the greatest investment returns come from similar circumstances e.g NEU after the share price fell under $1.00 which I flagged as the best risk reward biotech at the time).
As I have said previously, if you look back at history in order to make 10-100 your money ("multi baggers") you need to be invested in a game changing technology with global scale. Most of those opportunities lie in the resources, technology or biotechnology sectors.
Following a series of events which we have discussed in other threads which have been devastating to shareholder value, it is fair to conclude RAD at the current market cap of $37.6m MC and $6.65m EV has perhaps has the best risk reward of the biotechnology world.
This compares to CU6, at a similar stage to RAD, at $259.2m MC, and TLX which is arguably 2 years ahead of RAD at $2.243 billion. Big pharma with an interest in the space include the RAD CEO's former company, $300 billion market capped Novartis, and many others. So subject to 1 of the several RAD molecules being proven to be commercial (high probability given the breadth of the pipeline), the prospects of deals with big pharma appear high.
The key to finding the right biotech is all about management, the products being commercial, and the end markets in those products being multiple billion markets. Without going into the myopic details, from a product perspective they have a broad pipeline of very prospective targeting agents including one which passed a ph 2 trial, each in multi-billion dollar end markets. Regarding market acceptance, they have a collaboration with MD Anderson the #1 cancer hospital in the U.S. and 5.96 billion MC Lantheus, from a management perspective, Riccardo is probably as good as you could get noting he's the former CCO of Novartis company Advanced Accelerator Applications (acquired by $300 billion dollar, Novartis, where Ricardo still has relationships), which was one of the leading radiopharmaceutical and nuclear medicine companies globally before being acquired.
While I intend to add more to this thread when time permits, I thought it might be worth sharing RAD's recent presentation from the Bell Potter Healthcare Conference 2022. Of particular note, Ricardo speaks about the pivalate results and big pharma's interest in the area, also of particular interest at around the 18:55 min mark Ricardo talks about their JV with MD Anderson #1 cancer centre in the US. Created NewCo called RadioPharm Ventures. Note MD Anderson has brought 4 molecules targeting 3 cancers into the JV (51% RAD owned) with only 1 disclosed yet - other 3 molecules are undisclosed for competitive intel reasons but significantly add to an already world class pipeline (read: RAD could reasonably be broken up into 5-10 different companies and it's a fair bet that the sum of parts valuation would be a lot higher than the current MC/EV). Lastly, it's also interesting to hear RAD is getting "calls every month" from big pharma to keep up to date with what they're doing / understand what they're doing. Bodes well for the future of the company from these levels...(again the challenge and inversely, the opportunity, is just to look forward at what is being built and the relative valuations, as opposed to backward, with this one). Cheers,
RAD Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)