Bell Potter latest report on GvHD, page-7

The market penetration and income generated need to be taken with a grain of salt, some provisos I take out of the BP analysis, from page 6, bolded for emphasis;

• Our belief is based upon MSB’s experience in US with the Expanded Access Program. Doctors who had access to the product under the EAP program, on approval will have much easier access to the product and we expect the demand under EAP to translate to first sales, with MSB’s marketing team helping to further grow the market beyond the EAP users.

• We also note that the EAP also allowed for compassionate use of the product for adults. Hence, even though the product will not be approved for adults, we do expect off label use would be likely in the adult population especially when following approval the product will be readily stocked at hospitals.

• Similar to Japan, we assume peak penetration of 50% of a growing addressable market (based on assumed growth in annual allogeneic transplants in US). However, we believe we are conservative given the lack of alternative treatments.

• We expect MSC-100-IV to be used as first line treatment in children (0-17 years) with SR-aGvHD, ahead of other immunosuppressants used in that setting (including the recently approved Jakafi), given the efficacy and especially due to lack of toxicity. We also note Jakafi is not approved for children below 12 years of age.

As additional background for anyone new to Mesoblast you could also re-read A Transplant Physician’s Journey from 15 july 2019