Bell Potter - 28-Feb.pdfSee the attachment for the latest Bell...

Bell Potter - 28-Feb.pdf
See the attachment for the latest Bell Potter report.

The recent rally reminds me of the volatility of bio-tech firms with their fate depending on having enough cash to burn through trials and equally as important, regulatory approval of commercialization.

With major products in phase 3, regulatory approval will be either a block-buster or heart-breaker for investor.
In terms of probability of approval, from Bell Potter,
1. GvHD has 85% in US and 54% rest of world
2. Revascor (LVAD) has 33% in US
3. Revascor (CHF) has 60% in US
4. Chronic lower back pain has 44% in US.

As usual, nothing is set in stone for MSB, yet. However, the risk of biotech firms is reduced, when its product is closer to regulatory approvals and when it has developed multiple products.

I believe MSB is in a good position since it will know what the regulators think soon and has more than one product, just in case one does not get approval.

I usually use CSL as an example of how great an investment in biotech firms is, if investors get it right. CSL has multiple unique, patented product pipelines that would dominate the market, if approved but still have other products to enter market, if one product fails. And, it does not worry about funding.

For MSB, funding risk is low this year. And it has 3 major products that are definitely quite unique/patented and life-saving. Every now and then, I see the shadow of CSL in MSB. Not sure if it's just self-indulgent illusion or perhaps bold foresight. Good luck to all holders!