From my understanding, $3.95 AUD per share is evaluated after...

From my understanding, $3.95 AUD per share is evaluated after taking all risks.

Based on the report's valuation, calculation for if the product is successful can be derived as follow.

if GVHD (ex-Japan) is successful (US + other countries- equally weighted), it adds (0.28/0.7-0.28)*1.4 = 0.168 AUD, to the valuation.

if Revascor LVAD is successful, it adds (0.06/0.33-0.06)*1.4 = 0.17 AUD

if Chronic backpain is successful, it adds (0.75/0.44-0.75)*1.4= 1.33 AUD

if Revascor (CHF) is successful, it adds (2/0.6-2)*1.4=1.86 AUD

But, I think every valuation has too many assumptions, so it's not very useful.
It's probably easier to think in term of probability of regulatory approval and how many life they will improve.
As long as the approved product will improve life significantly and be reasonably accessible by patients, MSB's value should be worth a bit.