Retts:
in 2015 they attribute a probability adjusted NPV for retts of $149 mill and now in 2017 we have have a phase 2b success and almost ready to get P3 ticked off and a NPV increase of just 11 mill ($160 mil!).
Lilypily, as you say, Bell Potter has attributed a probability adjusted NPV of $160 million for trofinetide in Rett Syndrome.
I note that a further valuation report was put out for (Swiss) Newron Pharmaceuticals last month. Newron has been mentioned on this forum before. To refresh, its drug, sarizotan, is being developed for respiratory symptoms in Rett Syndrome. By Newron’s estimates, roughly 50% of Rett patients have such breathing disturbances. Newron is currently running a single “potentially pivotal” Phase 2/3 clinical trial. Sarizotan’s efficacy in this condition has only been previously demonstrated in mice. The clinical trial site says that the current trial is expected to complete in December 2018.
The report analyst has estimated an NPV for sarizotan in Rett syndrome equivalent to AU$338 million. That’s using a success probability of 25%.
Yes, that’s more than double the probability adjusted NPV that Bell Potter has estimated for trofinetide in Rett Syndrome. What’s more, that’s for a drug which addresses just one symptom of Rett, in just 50% of the Rett market.
(20min delay)