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gingerclam

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03/07/17

12:24

Post #: 25628541
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Originally posted by lilypily ↑

I was just reviewing the Bell potter valuation from July 2015 (25c) vs July 2017 (13c)

Keep in mind since July 2015 we have had
1) Success in phase 2b Retts
2) Success in phase 2 FX
3) Fail in TBI with a re-trial on the cards

and ill exclude all the other things like extended patents, the new FX like Syndrome etc

Retts:
in 2015 they attribute a probability adjusted NPV for retts of $149 mill and now in 2017 we have have a phase 2b success and almost ready to get P3 ticked off and a NPV increase of just 11 mill ($160 mil!). Global sales and market share etc haven't been altered (and are very conservative)

FX:
in 2015 the probability adjusted NPV is $132 mill and now in 2017 they list it as $105mill . So success in phase 2 has dropped the NPV.....?????

Also interesting in the FX valuation they use chance of success at 25% vs 30% they used for retts at the same stage (not really here or there though). Peak market share is half of Retts, again not sure the rationale behind that considering drug costs are similar and demand is going to be similar (50% used in retts) and global market sales still very very conservative.

So we are far more progressed, we are derisked and nearly ready to roll out a phase 3 + phase 2b program yet we are at half the valuation....

I don't really take any note of these reports but it does give you an idea of the scale we are dealing with once we derisk further. That has to be after the FDA meeting . I also believe the consolidation is definitely a strategic move to get buying pressure in the lead up to that event. So if anyone wants a decent position they better hurry because if we only have 100 mill shares on issue the share price/ market cap will not be sitting at 120 mill for long.

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Superb post Lily - glad you post here.

It is the very, very conservative valuations that have always had me at a loss to explain the thinking.

NEU Price at posting: 6.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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bell potter, page-7

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