bell potters no 1 biotech, page-41

Gc, if your arguments about why previous rates of success do not apply to NEU's trials held water, then you would expect the approval rate for clinical trials to have increased from one year to the next (based on your arguments about companies getting smarter or learning from previous mistakes and so on). Trouble is though, it hasn't. The success rate has actually fallen.

https://www.dtmi.duke.edu/news-publications/research-news/translational-news-archives/phase-ii-success-rates-lower-than-other-phases-of-clinical-trials

http://www.pharmalot.com/2011/05/phase-ii-clinical-trial-failures-are-rising/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/14/us-pharmaceuticals-success-idUSTRE71D2U920110214

http://www.biotech-now.org/business-and-investments/inside-bio-ia/2010/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-recent-study-from-tufts

http://www.nature.com/nrd/journal/v10/n5/full/nrd3439.html

http://biostrategics.wordpress.com/2011/06/27/clinical-trial-probability-of-success-just-how-probable-is-a-great-outcome/