Bells 36-77c Valuation

Hi all,

New Bells valuation out. A brief summary of the 7 page report...

Quote...

Valuation: NPV estimates suggest values of $0.36 - 0.77/sh
We have revised our valuations to reflect the higher than originally realised size of the upper zone in the SNE-1 well. Our valuation estimates are based on NPV-related forecasts, which we believe are the best guide to valuing FAR. We provide two cases:
- Base case – Applying risk weighting in the range of 40 - 60% to the Senegalese assets and a risk weighting discount of 85% for its Kenyan assets; and
- Upside case – Reducing the risk adjustment discount factors to 25 - 35% for Senegalese assets and to 75% for Kenyan assets.



Exploration assets:
Senegal....$763m (base) - $1444m (upside) (Note $580m (18c/sh) (base) for FAN and SNE)
Kenya........$343m (base) - $952m (upside)
Other...........$64m (base) - $99m (upside)
Total..........$1140 (36c/sh) - $2494m(77c/sh)

Assumptions.
Based on 13.7% interest assuming Petrosen back in at 18%
Using diluted capital of 3.255m shares
Total recoverable reserves: 400mmbbls FAN and 330mmbbls SNE
First oil 2022; oil price US$91, ex rate 85.

end quote.

Bells recognise that for a 5 well appraisal program, FAR will need to raise addition capital but could also do this via farm-down.

Just a matter of time really.

Cheers,