TRF is a little more diversified play than IFE... yet lets face it IFE will outperform TRF if the Whilcherry project meets all future targets during the year. Unless of course ROL success or gold mining success on top of the Ore.
I do believe that 2011 will be mostly about the Ore project and so it should be. IFE is now reaching such low levels that if you buy at 75c now- next month you maybe able to sell your Renounceable shares for a nice little profit. Providing the Insto and Ian and team SELL the project to pro investors and other instos.
It certainly is a good story to tell- invest 30Mil total for a 60M+ pa profit per MT. Then double it the following year...
Anyway I thought i would add my post from IFE as it is very relevant to TRF;
>>BACK IN;
Could not resist but to re-enter at mid 70s (IFE) and will keep accummulating at these levels... as we will get renounceable shares to sell off or convert for 75c. So VERY many times have I seen the gap fill on a SPP only for it to take off like a rocket when the real Roadshows and touting begins. Their maybe a method to Ian's ST madness- Lol.
I was not happy with the increase OPEX to approx $90, yet I am told that Ian has over estimated worst case to outperform predictions, he is now taking a NEW approach to stategic thinking IMO. High grade Iron Ore are at very high prices and many commodity traders are very bullish on Ore and Copper in 2011. We will do extremely well if we are at even higher prices closer to production. Ore prices closer to production will be very very important for large multi bagger success in Yr 1.
At current prices we will make 60-70 Mil per MT profit... very good margins for a 30Mil investment. Fantantic if we actually do or even outperform this figure on a bullish 2011. let us not forget that the general market is still under 5000 points when we were near 7000 pts before GFC 2008. I thought it would take 5-7 years to get back, yet many are getting back to before GFC income sooner than suspected. Those in the commodity plays- anyway.
Basically I took the strategic approach of feeling the cap will fill yet i see very little downside from here on a risk reward basis. I now do prefer IFE over TRF as 2011 should see IFE greatly outperform if targets are met and Ore remains high.
I must admit however that this play is one of my higher risk plays for my 2011 portfolio, I will make no pretense of this. Yet at these levels it is definately worth a punt for multi bagger status during the year.
If you are not bullish on Ore then it is not the play for you. However an amazing correction would need to occur for us not to make over 20M Per MT in 2012.
Obviously this play is not for the faint hearted and I am not yet as loaded up as I was several weeks ago. I am a little disappointed in the approach Ian has taken in the last 3 months. I think he has not played this strategically correct.
Best thing would have been to release DFS with the great upside with all issue covered like Port Access confirmation, shipping, etc. Then JV touting via a Roadshow with a great brokerage PR firm. Then issue a SPP offer once more investor interest has come aboard.
Anyway I hope this will now be Ian strategy in Jan 2011, as the LT believer in this Ore project will be rewarded greatly once he sells the investment to Instos and pro investors.
Still a couple too many Ummms and Ahhhhs for some at this time. Look forward to a great Jan\Feb 2011. If I am not happy with Ian's comments and continued vagueness i will be very direct about it. I do not like the approach he has taken to investors- even large ones in proposed dates then not accomplishing. Also recommendations by large shareholders have been completely disregarded. Sure Ian knows far more about his company, yet some of the professional investors know far more about the reaction of the market on the way he has gone about this strategically.
In the past 2 years he has been a very good strategic player- this time I feel he views he will suffer ST pain for LT gain. He will give worst case high side expense predictions then meet or exceed targets making him look better.
If we are up 50%+ UP in a month I am sure many of us will be singing his praises. We are not liking his ST approach to date and not really telling the truth on several items in my mind. He has a bit to answer for and is clearing up some issues I have had. Yet he needs to listen to his larger holders as well, and not dismiss suggestions offerred to him.
Whilst he could not get Port Access sign off completely before DFS, he did list many options yet they seem to be at a premium. Also he has realized IMO that it is better to be conservative in predictions and exceed them, making himself as a leader look great. Most Mid to large cap Directors do this- unless you are a Twiggy of course.
Anyway good luck to all holders- the next 3 months are vital IMO.
Hopefully a Happy New Year for us all...
Cheers JAY<<
TRF Price at posting:
41.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
