Regarding the commodities boom, the speculative froth is over...

Regarding the commodities boom, the speculative froth is over mostly because of the lack of capital now that we have the credit crisis. This will choke new development and new exploration, and we'll be back to 2001 levels in 5 years.

However, knucklesandwich doesn't do the current boom in fundamental profitability of established miners much justice. Zinc is up 15% on long term averages. If costs weren't up 30-45% people would be laughing.

Lead is up 150% on LTA.

Gold is up 100% in five years, and is feeling out a new level. Again, costs are up 30% across the industry so profits aren't spectacular - and ore bodies in Australia are mostly tired remnants.

Nickel is up 100% on LTA. Costs are up by between 20% and 100% (depending on who it is) but this is still profit territory for anyone except MCR and MRE.

Copper is up a whopping 250% since 1996-1998. Thats not doing too badly. S&P's reckons the support level price is $2.75/lb, so that seems to be a sustainable shift in the fundamental floor price as agreed by analysts. Not bad at all.

Platinum is up 100%+ and its going to stay up because South Africa is munted and Norilsk is capacity limited but automotive catalytic converter demand is rampant.

Specialty metals, lithium, moly, tantalum, niobium, uranium lets say, and vanadium, manganese, chrome are all up.

Titanium isn't. But its common as sand, really.

So yeah, the boom's taken a shot to the pills in the last 6 months, but this is mostly predicated by a short-ish term correction in money markets. The basic fact remains that prices or metals are higher. The problem is, costs are up too, and projects are harder to commission, and investors are spooked.

But it doesn't mean some sectors aren't hurting, like zinc, where costs increases have ovverrun price increases.