I would just like to share some thoughts and rough calculations I did, hanging around at the beach of Greece I took another Lithium Junior as a benchmark and assumed that all Juniors being valued more or less the same at comparable development stages. The project of the benchmark junior is a brine project but anyways, production start, needed investment, future revenue and profit are the important elements, not where the Lithium comes from. The goal is to project market cap of lpd end of 2017 (DFS available) based on benchmark. Here is the comparison:
DFS available? Lpd: no, bench: yes (29.3.17)
Lithium in t/year? Lpd: 3k, bench: 25k (DFS)
Li-Revenue/year (assuming 12k/t)? Lpd: 36 Mio, bench: 300 Mio
Construction cost? Lpd: 40 Mio, bench: 425 Mio
Production-cost? Lpd: 1,5k/t, bench: 2,4k/t
Profit before taxes? Lpd: 31,5 Mio, bench: 240 Mio
Market cap after DFS? Lpd: ?, bench: ~400 Mio
Calculating Market cap after DFS for Lpd:
MC of Bench(29.3.17)/profit per annum of bench(dfs) * profit per annum of lpd
400/240*31,5=52,6 Mio (end of 2017)
So with everything running smoothly, you could assume more than double of current market cap for end of 2017. Obviously this is increasing with full scale plant.
With that in mind the current sp doesn't look unrealistically low, at least from my perspective and after calculating. (Before that I was disappointed by no reaction on latest news)
Everything just my opinion but happy to Get your thoughts.
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I would just like to share some thoughts and rough calculations...
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