Not bad.. just remember, nothing goes up in a straight line... the market doesn't always understand or pay fair value, until it's blindingly obvious, then prices go ballistic.
I expect Lithium prices to moderate, as more supply comes on stream, so I work off around $12,000 USD per metric tonne of battery-grade LCE. LPD will only hit it's production straps when some others do in 2021 ,with a full scale plant, so maybe add a year to that, for a full year of reporting for the institutions that are a bit late to the game to start piling in. So in my mind, this is one for the bottom draw, by and hold, and be happy.
There are obviously a LOT of things that will occur between now and then: 3-4 years.
Potential CRs, JVs, possible T/O attempts.... There are a lot of things that have to go right. However what LPD have is so unique... There is also their royalty which is the pay-back on I.P. for the companies that will want to utilise L-Max. It might be 1.5M-2M here and there, let's say 20 companies come on to license at 5%, that could be an extra $40M a year revenue with no additional capital outlay as they are using IP, not to mention LPD could be consulting to them for plant builds/operation.. Much of production cost is paid for with byproducts, another huge bonus spodumene miners don't currently get. It is unique that LPD go all the way to a useable battery-grade product, and have none of the real headaches that concentrate suppliers have like shipping issues.
Once up and running, and profitable in 2022 (with a full year of production and financial reporting to market), it should be easy for LPD to be well above $500M m/c. Maybe even 1B. That is many multiples of today's m/c. I would be surprised if this is not the case. Around that time 2021 onward, many car-makers have committed to be selling their EVs.
It would not surprise me if L-Max became one of the very FIRST processes utilised in Lepidolite bearing Spodumene Lithium processing as well, as spod drops out of solution, and the rest goes onto be processed. Obviously the main target is high-grade Lepidolite etc.
I try and be very conservative with my figures.
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