@SF@HC ............"Nonetheless, converter capacity is abviously...

@SF@HC ............"Nonetheless, converter capacity is abviously the problem atm, which if not rectified sooner rather than later, this will create other bottlenecks further down the supply chain (i.e. battery shortages, which is the case atm). "

I have a problem with this as it doesn't match what is happening with both carbonate and hydroxide prices at present. On pg 10 of the quarterly presentation...............
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190725/pdf/446vzj5p0zht75.pdf
.................it is clear that lithium chemicals prices are continuing to fall.

Plus there are a lot of conversion facilities being built, that should come online very soon. IMHO all this will do is accelerate the decline in the lithium chemical prices.

It is clear to me that battery production is the problem. Both Tesla and Audi have had to hold back EV production due to lack of batteries, yet lithium chemical prices are falling. Of course the bottleneck could also be in cathode construction, but I still place that in the relm of 'battery construction'.

Also it pays to think critically of such reports as that BMI one, as I think they have some dates mixed up. For example in the 5 years from 2018 to 2023 they have an increase in battery manufacturing capacity going from 290Gwh to 1,133Gwh in 5 years. The also have battery manufacturing capacity going from 1,133Gwh to 1,859Gwh in the next 5 years to 2028.
I find it hard to believe we will increase battery manufacture capacity by 843Gwh in the early 5 year phase then only another 726Gwh in the following 5 years.
Plus when you look at what Simon Moore says in the video about 1 million tonnes of LCE being needed by 2025, the 1,133Gwh number for 2023 is 2 years earlier.

I believe the number they have for 2023 should be for 2025. Otherwise if it is indeed the number for 2023, then they are predicting growth rates for battery manufacture to be 10.5%/a between 2023 and 2028 whereas they are predicting growth rates of about 31.3%/a between 2018 and 2023.

Also handy is their number of 150,000t of LCE used for batteries in 2018. Using this number plus their growth rate of battery manufacture capacity (31.3% /a) we can work out an approximate requirement of lithium chemicals for the next few years....

2019 ........ 196,950t
2020 ....... 258,595t
2021 ........ 339,535t
2022 ....... 445,810t
2023 ....... 585,349t

It is obvious that battery manufacture capacity in all years does not correspond with actual batteries made. The 2018 figure alone gives this away with 150,000t of LCE used yet a 'claimed' battery manufacturer capacity of 290Gwh. The above numbers assume the same discrepancy to 2023.

From this post https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/39679420/single
where I worked out just the WA lithium production capacity of 3,410,000 of battery grade spodumene, which using a conversion ration of 8 t of spod concentrate to 1 tonne of LCE = 426,000t of LCE equivalent in 2020, then it is easy to see oversupply until at least after 2021.
This is without PLS stage 2 or 3, nor Greenbushes st 3, nor KDR producing anything. If we add those in by end of 2021 then you get oversupply until after 2023, just from WA!!

I have no doubt that after 2025 there will be a real need for ramp up of lithium supply, but in the next couple of years we clearly have oversupply.