Benign Banter & Price Predictions, page-5655

Specifically for AGY:
- Does AGY have any debts/loans/facilities that will be influenced (even remotely) by the rise of US interest rates (at this moment, the assumed trigger to the assumed correction)? No.
- Have any AGY creditors sold, out of a direct concern of the potential rising cost of borrowing in the course of 2018? No announcement at this stage.
- In generic terms, is a full US employment + slightly warmer wage growth + slightly warmer inflation, good for AGY's business prospect in 2018 and beyond? Yes, you bet!
- Mind you, as at end of 31/12/2017, AGY has >$15m in cash, and >$12m in deposits. I don't see any capital bleeding from any of the recent events. In particular, though not a perfect correlation in the US, but bottom line is that higher Fed rates won't result in lower call deposit rates. So, in fact, a large part of AGY's capital is preserved in value (for quarterly terms, anyway).

More broadly as events unfolded today:
- Since 6am AEST, I believe I have heard more than 12 different commentaries and analysts in 4 different meetings. Hardly representative and statistically significant, I know.

But I have heard a completely change in sentiment and rhetoric. In various subtle and cunning ways, the same theme is "don't pick bottom, wait until dust settles". Always pay attention, and think again, when pro mm's and fundies recommend to "wait".

- Funds are not rushing into safe havens. Gold is flat. 10-year yield slipped (interesting). Why? then who is "panicking"? Wait, is there really a "panic"?

- Take another look at the world markets between late 2015 and early 2016.

So, coming back to AGY, who's been selling and why?

Just thinking out loud - quite possibly a large portion of retail investors who chased the highs between 0.35 and 0.45 are now (or have been) repositioning.

Equally possibly a decent portion of investors of all sorts who accumulated between 0.03 and 0.25 are diversifying some positions as a response to the market.

And equally apparent - some are accumulating ahead of a list of soon-to-come big news. And AGY seems to have a bit of a naughty habit of releasing sensitive news starting 2 months before AGM (usually in May)

I am just talking to myself - jotting down these notes as a personal reminder. So, as a formality, IMO and DYOR