best case scenario, page-2

bazzza, I don't know as much about FML as you do, but hey, we're both non-holders- may as well have a yarn about it. :P You are non-holder bear and I am non-holder bull.

Crescent Gold has been a turnaround story and, it seems, a successful one. FML owns 80% of Crescent @ $60m, and could pay out $15m for the last 20%, or just maintain majority interest. Why sell Crescent?

I don't get this bit about "control" of FML. I do understand if holders wanted a premium for the purchase of all of their shares, but some would have wanted the company to just continue mining- as with all takeover- some want it and some don't. So, now FML is to be given (Chinese authorities willing) a massive placement at a premium. As with all placements, whoever is involved with them get ownership of the shares. This placement just happens to be a whopper. It's not a takeover that people may have wanted, but it is the next best thing- a fully funded company. There are loads of companies with overseas majority ownership, like GRR and others, I don't see that as a problem.

This research report from 3/12/2012 says a share consolidation could be done @ 30:1:

http://www.focusminerals.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/fml3dec2012.pdf

"At some stage, FML ideally needs to consolidate its shares (possibly on a 30-for-1). It should be recognised that this production scenario is an ERA scenario, and is just one of a number of possible scenarios that could occur."
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Everything rests on this deal going through. Just a question, though: FML has identified how it could spend the Shandong money re capex and opex needs. So, the company has given the market an open look into FML's financial requirments, and how those will be met by Shandong's cash. Given that ($90m capex etc), so you think if Chinese govt approval is not given to Shandong, will the FML share price go up or down without Shandong? The deal is now a 60% premium to current market cap. And one more question: do you think FML will be paying dividends soon without this capex and opex Shandong money? My opinion is that without this money, FML will be like many other gold producers on the ASX- raising capital here and there to SI's, who will take a quick profit and run. At least with Shandong, they will keep their holding.

Shandong will make life easier for this battler, imo. It's been offered a gift, even though the share price says otherwise. I am also in a company where there is a move to have majority overseas ownership via a cash injection. Our share price has been smashed too. However, I hate to think what will happen if our own deal falls over. Cash is not easy to come by. Cash + performance ought to make both of these companies worth a penny more than they are now. Cash + no performance will be another story.