This is fair. I just don't agree with the timing nor that the...

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Zinzan4

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15/11/22

12:27

Post #: 64780152
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Originally posted by HungryHawk: ↑

I think there are some obvious factors as to why it didn't turn out as you expected with gold being "a safe haven in bad times" (a logical expectation by the way).
1. My understanding in previous recessions there has been an initial sell off in gold as a "sell everything" position can present in the markets particularly for those geared that may receive margin calls etc. The gold run can sometimes come a little later when in a sustained bear market rather than the initial sell off.
2. The world's reserve currency (USD) can be perceived in the short term as that "safe haven". Particularly with the speed that the Fed has been raising rates, the interest rate differential globally and the effect on bond market yields. I think this last point may be starting to change though.
3. The USD has been weaponised by the US government for geopolitical reasons. There has been lots of manipulation of the gold price to keep the USD strong. The difference between the "paper price" and the price of physical gold is evidence of this.

Despite the above factors, I think the wheel might be turning.
1. I think there has been some global push back on the way that the USD has been used as a weapon against Russia. It undermines the trust globally of the USD as the global reserve currency.
2. Just as Russia has pegged their currency against gold to restore trust in its worth, other countries are considering what a future shift in the world reserve currency could look like and their are discussions of other fiat currencies being backed by commodities.
3. The recent upswing in the gold price seems to be linked with an increase of reserve banks adding large amounts of gold to their gold reserves. Again this might be signalling decreasing confidence in the USD going forward in an environment where the US has inflated their currency dramatically in recent years.
4. If that gold reserve filling continues for an extended period, we could see a long and large run in the gold price.

Holding NST has been a painful ride over the past year or two, but I'm subscribing to the patience may be thoroughly rewarded camp. As Watchful Bull mentioned, they have very little debt and have expended significant funds to optimise their resource production in the coming years. GLTA.

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This is fair. I just don't agree with the timing nor that the USD is turning. I think it's just having a breather.

Imo summary: Something breaks > Sell everything event > Gold moons (Q2 2023)

I'm probably completely wrong but that's my conservative play.

NST Price at posting: $10.35 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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