"Not so sure, there's 70% chance it will look like this....."...

"Not so sure, there's 70% chance it will look like this....."

Skol thinks there is a 70% chance that NST will go down when it gets to the pointy end of the price triangle.

Not according to this chart.
Rather, there is a 70% chance that NST will go up in July.
The average rise through July in the last 10 years has been 9.0%.

In what month would you rather own NST?

The A$ GOLD etf only increases an average 1.5% in July, so NST's July seasonality occurs in spite of a fairly flat gold price in July.
( The big months for the GOLD etf are January (3.0%) and August (2.8%) )

I also note that, barring accidents today or tomorrow, NST have not announced any material events that would invalidate the FY21 guidance that NST have confirmed as late as 4 May.

"On track to achieve FY21 production guidance;
1.5-1.7Moz at AISC A$1,390-A$1,520/oz"

If they hit the middle of that guidance, that ought to be good for a 9% rise in the SP.

Cheers