NST 3.41% $14.43 northern star resources ltd

There is the old saw that history doesn't repeat itself, but it...

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    There is the old saw that history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes, which is not much help in making predictions.

    As highlighted in your chart, when the GFC hit in 2008, there was an initial fear spike in the gold price, which then subsided.
    That was followed by a much higher spike in gold a couple of years latter, which was propelled by the fear that inflation would emerge due to all the money being printed as a response to the GFC.
    Another consideration at that time was the possibility of default by various nations.
    To everyone's surprise, including that of the central banks, the inflation didn't materialise and gold subsided.

    So what stage are we at now relative to the covid economic shock?

    Fairly obviously, we must have already had the initial "we are all gonna die from covid" spike in gold.
    But if the GFC history repeats, we may not yet have seen the true covid inflation fear spike, as we are only a bit over a year past the start of the economic impact of covid.
    If that is the case, and if the spike eventually scales by the amount of money that has been printed in response to covid and scales proportionately to the post GFC spike, then it could be a doozy.

    The alternative view is that we have already had the covid inflation fear spike in gold and there is now nothing to worry about because the economy will digest all the printed money without any significant impact on inflation.

    I have about 13% invested in producing gold miners as insurance against the possibility that the economy develops indigestion.
    That's up from what I would normally hold as insurance against the ordinary possibility of other calamities. .

    Cheers






    Last edited by Downanout: 05/07/21
 
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