I think you might be confusing my thesis with someone else's.
I am not a doomsayer about the US economy but nor do I have a Panglossian view of it.
The article that you have quoted dovetails nicely with my point about the risks entailed in the unprecedented expansion of the money supply.
The US economy would have to grow at least another 15% on top of the forecast 7% for 2021, just to be utilizing the money that was printed in 2020 at the pre-covid intensity.
It would need to grow another 25% to be utilising the money that was printed for the GFC at the longer term historical intensity.
So it is reasonable to have some concerns about what might happen when the US economy starts bumping into capacity restraints, given all the spare money that is already in the system.
Will it blow up. Nobody knows for sure because we have not had this situation before.
Yes, the FED can put up interest rates to control inflation.
But with all the debt that has been fostered by low interest rates, using the interest rate lever will require courage and a deft touch.
Rising interest rates would likely revive the risk of defaults by weaker economies around the world.
Rising rates are negative for gold but inflation and default risk are positive.
Thus, as always, we contend with a mixed bag of countervailing effects, which is now enlivened by a greatly expanded money supply.
Cheers
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