Best position ever ., page-39

"So you believe a 1-5% risk of FDA non-approval is responsible for a massive discount in the current share price? Hmmm, that doesnt make much sense to me."

Well it makes complete sense to me because the outcomes are asymmetrical.

FDA grants approval say 90% chance. Outcome a revenue generating, possibly dividend paying company with $110m in milestone payments in the bank, upfront payments for the ROW and on-going double digit royalties for every dose of Trofinitide prescribed anywhere in the world.

FDA denies approval, say 10% chance. NEU is a company that makes a drug with with a successful P3 trial on its CV and not a single dose sold anywhere.

Given that asymmetry, a rational market must significantly discount the current value of the company to account for the outside possibility of disaster. The day the FDA gives approval, disaster averted and the stock can rerate to something like its DCF value. No mystery or lack of sense there. Just markets behaving totally rationally.