Billy funny you should mention cash. Exactly what I have been...

Billy funny you should mention cash. Exactly what I have been looking at.
I have been out of action recently but have almost caught up on things now.
Another conspiracy theory.......

After looking at the ins and outs, I think that there is some manouvering for a takeover by PRC not by APAC. This is what BNP/APAC is worried about. The application to the Takeovers Panel by APAC is, I think, not an application for a takeover bid as some on HC think, but an objection under the Takeovers Panel Guidance Note 17.28 that states “The Panel would expect more disclosure in relation to a rights issue that has more potential control effects (eg, increase in a person's voting power from 10% to 40%, compared to increase in a person's voting power from 51% to 55%). APAC are concerned that PRC will potentially end up with considerably more shares than 20% of the company by way of the RI.
ABM has not indicated, as far as I can see, how the shortfall shares will be distributed to interested applicants. By way of an example, I calculate that if there is a shortfall due to Citicorp, JPM not taking up the RI and only 50% of other shareholders take up their entitlement, PRC could end up with 34% of the company’s shares, if they were allocated the shortfall in total.
This means that they would only have to stump up 66% of the value they place on the potential MC of ABM in a takeover situation.

Following that through, this then puts them in a prime takeover position. The sleeper in this is cash. I think that at the end of March ABM should have about $20m in cash and gold based on their estimates of the March qtr expenditure ($11.7m) the starting point on 1 Jan of about $8m - $2.75m in a Restricted a/c ($5.25 net) plus revenues for the qtr Jan $5, Feb $6.7, Mar $6.7 ($18.4m) plus $8 forthcoming from rights issue = $8m + $5.25m + $18.4m - $11.7m = $19.95m
For a 100% takeover PRC would offer say 12.75cps (sound attractive at the moment?) That values ABM at $70m, ie 549m X $0.1275 (seems reasonable). However PRC would only have to buy 362m shares, 66% of the total, costing $46.155m, less the cash they inherit $19.95m, meaning they would only need $26.2m for a complete takeover. The extra shares picked up under the RI (118m) would have cost them $4.7m, taking their total outlay to $30.9m.
How’s that for a deal? In reality they acquire 549m shares for $30.9m, an outlay 5.6 cents per share in addition to their current holding.
ABM shareholders may think 12.75cps is a good deal, based on current share price and just may buy the story considering the extra shares they bought at 4cps. Game over!
What do we do FIIK!
Good luck all
PB