p.s. yes, I know my view on SHV has changed, spent some time...

p.s. yes, I know my view on SHV has changed, spent some time looking at the AR and thinking about the business model.


Rosy, the business model was worthy of a well supported capital raising in 1997 which was purely for the purpose of developing about 450 acres iirc. An increase in acreage of about 33%

Subsequent to that capital raising TIM and SHV got into bed for a very good marriage until the eventual death of TIM.

Austock is listing SHV as a strong buy with a forecast of EPS of 59.7c, personally I think that is too high but unless there are external problems such as a sky rocketing $A or a plummeting almond price or an extreme weather event I can't see why the EPS doesn't substantially increase in 2012 and then drop back to longer term levels in 2013.

For mine I see EPS of 35c as achievable on a consistent basis in the absence of the above mentioned risks. This would underpin a share price above $3, I think the market has been too spooked by the collapse of TIM and subsequent weather events to give SHV any premium for the foreseeable future.