The following is just my personal appraisal of the situation as it is an interesting story so I thought I would assist and entertain by helping to join the dots. Please do not take this as any advice as it is just my personal opinion based on information released and mainstream commentary. Thank you, and enjoy your Sunday read...
One should be very cautious buying into stocks that have released material and significant news relating to the future of their business. There are many such precedents including that of the forge group recently, of course this is no forge group but the material affect of the situation and trading pattern might be turn out to be the same (ie, dead cat bounces).
Taking as gospel opinions from share traders and advisors in the loop (particular reference to the ‘SMH’ article) talking up the stocks in an unusually profound way during trading halts and just before they go back into trading on the back of such damming and unexpected news begs of further questioning as to their own possible indirect exposures that wouldn’t normally have to be declared, as well as relations to clients and associates that may have positions or indirect interests as I am sure there would have to be for someone to make such a timely and profound declaration in the face of such devastating news.
From my experience and in my opinion, apart from dead cat bounces the risks are very high as the future of this company and its life blood is its intellectual property and this is what’s at stake in a very serious way. Putting possible futures aside, the reality is that there are uncertain times ahead and this stock may trend and stay lower whilst this uncertainty remains. The ‘Motley Fool’ has a fair take on the situation;
“So what: The announcement is a significant blow for Silex and its shareholders and the slashing of the firm’s share price acknowledges this fact. Silex is reliant on its licensees commercialising the technology for which it would earn a royalty – without commercialisation it’s hard to see how Silex will turn a profit.”
Remember it’s the licensee’s support for the development of this technology and without it, there is no foundation left in this stock.
Further underlying potential pitfalls are alluded to from the ‘Australian’;
“But plans for premature dotages are now on hold after Silex revealed US development partner Global Laser Enrichment was “aligning the pace of its commercialisation with adverse market conditions’’. Silex/GLE cite oversupply of both uranium and enrichment capacity.
Market conditions aside, the GLE go-slow could also be seen as a message to the US Department of Energy to pull its fingers out re its seminal project: a planned full-scale plant in Kentucky. As well as the usual environmental and planning approvals, GLE needs DoE consent to access depleted tailings, which would be upgraded to reactor-grade yellowcake.
Until the Kentucky plant is built, Silex does not see a dime of the royalty streams (7-12 per cent of GLE’s revenues) to which it is entitled.”
Also keep in mind that without foreseeable revenue or income there is the issue of cash burn and depletion, the company still needs to pay people and maintain the running of its business. This has also been acknowledged by the company in its desperate move to slash its burn rate, ironically by focusing on the very technology that is at the centre of its current dilemma which threatens its survival.
Finally it won’t be child’s play getting the necessary environmental and planning approvals as this material is serious hazardous stuff, DoE’s consent will unlikely be forthcoming in the foreseeable future either, based on the obvious security risks and hazards of the material.
The GLE partners, along with the DoE realise that their countries energy requirements in the near term will be better fulfilled with more conventional and safer energies such as the shale gas revival that is being seen in the south. That is why they are realigning themselves, they see the writing on the wall.
The smart guys are pulling out now whilst at the same time telling us average Joe’s to jump in? Sounds familiar...
So the bottom line based on my experience dealing with falling rocks and bouncing cats, and the commentary and information already out there, my opinion suggests that this stock will settle lower in the medium term.
Good luck to everyone, please don’t get burned, lest you become enlightened.
