Alright, Silent-Bubbles, first off, thanks for sharing your...

Alright, Silent-Bubbles, first off, thanks for sharing your insights, your take on the broader lithium and critical minerals space is always appreciated. I do admire the depth of perspective you bring to these forums; you clearly have experience and knowledge that gives your views weight. That said, I’d love to challenge some of the points you’ve raised while also sharing a bit of my own perspective on Sayona and its future potential.

You mention that Sayona, or any listed company for that matter, is a gamble, and I don’t necessarily disagree. Investing inherently involves risk, and lithium companies, given their dependence on fluctuating commodity prices and evolving market conditions, add a layer of uncertainty. But with Sayona, there’s an argument to be made for both optimism and caution. Let me dig in a little, both for your views and my position.

On the one hand, Sayona Mining's NAL project seems like a solid cornerstone. Producing spodumene concentrate, targeting annual production of 226,000 metric tons, and shipping to global players like LG Chem and Tesla are no small feats as I have mentioned above. Plus, the whole renewable hydroelectricity angle and infrastructure access make it well-positioned compared to competitors. However, as you and others here on the thread have pointed out, none of this has yet translated into a booming share price. It’s an intriguing paradox, because while the fundamentals, at least on paper, seem promising, the stock doesn’t reflect the potential many are banking on.

Now, about your US and Canada trip in 2023 and the thesis you compiled at that time, it would be fascinating to hear more, even if just at a general level. I totally get and respect the confidentiality of those discussions, but surely some broader trends or takeaways are fair game for reflection here? What did you observe in terms of investor sentiment, operational challenges, or comparative advantages among lithium and critical minerals players? Even without revealing specifics, this kind of insight could shed more light on where Sayona stands in the grander scheme.

Here’s where I’d add my counterpoints or questions for discussion: Is Sayona a stronger contender because of its role in the upcoming merger with Piedmont Lithium? The formation of MergeCo, with a 50/50 ownership split, could shift the narrative. Sayona becoming the parent entity might give it more strategic control, which, paired with the $99 million equity raisings, certainly implies plans to accelerate growth. The question is, do these moves position MergeCo, and thus Sayona, as a viable long-term player in the lithium market? Or is this just another example of big plans overshadowed by an inability to inspire market confidence?

Another aspect you’ve highlighted, and one that’s been echoed by others here, is the volatility in the market. Average down, average up, pick your strategy, right? But given the cyclical nature of commodities, is this downturn an opportunity to increase positions, as you’ve alluded to, or is it a sign to cut losses and step away? You’ve got a good handle on things, and I think your point about taking a balanced view, looking at both the micro and macro, is valid. From a macro perspective, lithium demand is expected to soar with the world’s shift to EVs and renewable energy, but that doesn’t necessarily mean all players in the space will thrive. The micro-level question is whether Sayona can stand out among its peers, something that’s yet to be determined.

Now, let’s talk about sentiment. The quietness from Sayona’s Board of Directors is indeed concerning. A lack of transparency or clear communication during uncertain times often causes investors to lose confidence. Could this silence be indicative of deeper issues, or is it simply a matter of timing, a deliberate strategy to play their cards closer to the chest? Without more clarity, it's hard to say whether this is a red flag or just a quirk of corporate strategy.

Lastly, your reflections on Bitcoin and your critique of BOT, point well taken. Bitcoin’s volatility can certainly rival that of lithium stocks, and the recommendation to switch markets doesn’t come without its risks. However, I’d argue that diversification, rather than total pivoting, might be the way to go. Sayona’s future is far from certain, but abandoning ship entirely might mean missing out on potential upside. It’s a tough call, but one worth discussing further. I also mine ETC and have been doing so for many years. Prior to that I was farming Etherium before it went POS.

Silent-Bubbles, I’m not trying to suck up here, I genuinely respect your knowledge and value your insights. But I’d be curious to hear more about your specific thoughts on MergeCo’s viability, Sayona’s competitive position within the lithium space, and whether you believe the current downturn represents an opportunity or a signal to reconsider involvement. With $150k invested, I have a significant stake in this game, and I’m eager to make informed decisions. What do you think, what’s the best way forward?

The recent U.S. tariffs are a seismic shift in global trade, and their ripple effects on the lithium market are bound to be significant. Over the next 6 to 12 months, these tariffs could create a mixed bag of challenges and opportunities for companies like MergeCo, which is poised to become a major player in the North American lithium market. This is why I'm perplexed as to how it will affect MereCo in the long run or at least in the next six months.

Well I'd imagine, there’s a silver lining here. The tariffs are designed to encourage domestic production and reduce reliance on imports, especially from countries like China, which currently dominates the lithium-ion battery market. MergeCo, with its NAL project and plans for increased production, is well-positioned to capitalize on this shift, at least that is my thinking SB. By offering a domestically sourced alternative, MergeCo could attract customers looking to avoid the added costs of imported materials. This could give the company a competitive edge, particularly if it can ramp up production efficiently and meet the growing demand for locally sourced lithium.

Another factor to consider is the potential for government incentives to offset the impact of tariffs. The U.S. government has shown a strong commitment to bolstering domestic industries, particularly those related to renewable energy and critical minerals. If MergeCo can align itself with these priorities, it may benefit from subsidies, tax breaks, or other forms of support that could help mitigate the challenges posed by the tariffs. This would not only strengthen MergeCo’s financial position but also enhance its reputation as a key player in the domestic lithium market, do you agree so far?

That said, the tariffs also bring risks. The increased cost of imported equipment and materials needed for lithium production could squeeze MergeCo’s profit margins, this is the conundrum I am having. Additionally, the broader economic impact of the tariffs, including potential trade wars and reduced consumer spending, could create a challenging environment for all businesses, including those in the lithium sector. MergeCo will need to navigate these complexities carefully, balancing its growth ambitions with the need to maintain financial stability.

Ok so, the U.S. tariffs are a double-edged sword for MergeCo. While they present challenges in the form of higher costs and potential market volatility, they also offer opportunities for the company to strengthen its position as a domestic supplier of lithium. Over the next year, MergeCo’s ability to adapt to these changes and leverage its strategic advantages will be crucial in determining whether the tariffs ultimately prove to be a boon or a burden.

The spot price of lithium is a hot topic, especially when considering MergeCo’s position as a US/Canadian (Australian) company. The dynamics of the lithium market are influenced by a mix of supply-demand factors, geopolitical shifts, and production costs, all of which play a role in determining whether MergeCo can carve out a profitable niche.

Let’s start with the spot price itself. Lithium prices have been on a rollercoaster ride in recent years, driven by surging demand for EVs and renewable energy storage. While prices hit record highs during the EV boom, they’ve shown signs of stabilizing or even dipping slightly as supply catches up with demand. However, the long-term outlook remains bullish, with analysts predicting sustained growth in lithium demand as governments push for greener energy solutions. For MergeCo, this means the potential for higher revenues if it can position itself as a reliable supplier in this growing market.

Being a US/Canadian company gives MergeCo a strategic advantage. The North American market is hungry for domestically sourced lithium, especially as the US government imposes tariffs and seeks to reduce reliance on imports from countries like China. MergeCo’s operations in Quebec and North Carolina position it well to meet this demand, offering a local alternative that aligns with government priorities. This could help MergeCo secure lucrative contracts with major players in the EV and energy storage industries, boosting its profitability.

Now, let’s talk about MergeCo’s AISC. Efficiency is key in the lithium industry, where production costs can make or break a company’s bottom line. MergeCo’s focus on cutting costs to the bone is commendable, but it also raises questions about sustainability. While low AISC can help MergeCo weather price fluctuations, it’s crucial to ensure that cost-cutting measures don’t compromise quality or operational stability. If MergeCo can maintain high efficiency without sacrificing reliability, it stands a good chance of turning a profit even in a volatile market.

However, there are challenges to consider. The lithium market is highly competitive, with established players like Albemarle and SQM dominating the scene. MergeCo will need to differentiate itself through innovation, strategic partnerships, and a strong commitment to sustainability. Additionally, the company must navigate potential risks, such as fluctuating spot prices, geopolitical tensions, and environmental concerns related to lithium mining.

I think I'm almost done here SB, the spot price of lithium is likely to remain volatile in the short term but shows promise for long-term growth, at least when those tariffs bite hard. MergeCo’s position as a US/Canadian company gives it a competitive edge, especially in the North American market. By leveraging its strategic location, maintaining efficient operations, and addressing potential challenges head-on, MergeCo has the potential to show solid profits and establish itself as a key player in the lithium industry. The road ahead won’t be easy, but with the right strategies, MergeCo could turn its vision into reality.