I have read the half year report and whilst they have continued to suffer the FX exchange rates there is a mixed bag in the reults. yes the SSM revenue growth was good, but the Microcat subsrciptions seemed to have stalled.
What worries me on this is that they provided the details of their forward FX hedges. 2 things strike me here; 1 they seem to be running out of hedges, and 2. they have experienced very favourable translations over the half due to the in the money hedges.
It appears to me, if the AUD stays where it is today, that they are headed for a horrible FY2012 as their hedges run out and they face translation at spot rates. in this circumstance their dividend is not maintainable.
look out, as this is no TLS with a 2 year guaranteed divi pmt. I suspect that they will have to come clean re FY2012 outlook when they announce their FY2011 results in August this year. It aint going to be pretty, and that's even if they do not lose any existing EPC business, if they do then really look out!!!
DYOR
IFM Price at posting:
26.0¢ Sentiment: ST Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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