When I say BEZ's MC when in production can be $1bil to $2bil, that $1bil MC figure expectation is very conservative. And I have good reason to believe so.
Why?
Because I ask myself:
1. What MC will be if today SXG announced it now has 3.3mil Oz MRE?
2. Then what MC do its shareholders expect if today it had ordered pilot plant equipments and those equipments are ready for transport to on-site and ready for construction?
3. What MC do its shareholders expect if today it announced it has EIA approval?
4. What MC do its shareholders expect if it today surprised its shareholders with up-to-AUD $9bil off-take agreement?
5. Then what if it later announced its off-take customer also signs a deal to pay up to AUD $450mil in advance for 5% deposit of that AUD $9bil off-take deal?
If all of those events or milestones happened to SXG today, I strongly believe SXG's MC would easily move above AUD $1bil. No doubt about it.
Therefore BEZ should already be at similar to that $1bil MC TODAY as well. This is why the Top40 shareholders are seeing the super bargain and are holding tight and adding more shares to their positions IMO.
For people who still does not understand the off-take deal is worth AUD $9bil, this is the figure:
USD $300mil = more than AUD $450mil at current exchange rate.
That $450mil represents 5% deposit for gold purchase contracts.
Therefore the off-take deal value = $450mil ÷ 5% = AUD $9bil.
The good news is:
If Quantum will complete $450mil pre-payment commitment, parts in this year 2024 and the balance in 2025. My estimate is its AVERAGE reference price in 2024 including the 372580oz already contracted at reference price of USD $1900, is at least USD $2200 price and the AVERAGE reference price for the remaining deposits will be at at least USD $2500. So, it won't be 3mil oz. It will be somewhere 2.5mil oz to 2.6mil oz for still the same AUD $450mil (USD $300mil) for Besra.
Of course what's good for Besra is always good for Quantum because Quantum is a major and the biggest shareholder of BEZ at 30% (and could already be at 32% now if what's Dato said at a meeting was correct).
BEZ Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
