If Quantum is to go all the way to USD $300mil pre-payment, this...

If Quantum is to go all the way to USD $300mil pre-payment, this is IMO a more likely path to play out:

1. Quantum will pay up to USD $100mil in 2024 and another $200mil in 2025.

2. Likely AVERAGE reference price for the 1st USD $100mil is USD $2300. Why?

- The first USD $35mil for 372580oz is at USD $1900 as we have known.

- The other USD $65mil for this year is likely to be spread over the balance of the year 2024 at average reference price of USD $2400 - $2600.

- So, you have the first USD $35mil at reference price of USD $1900 and next USD $65mil at average reference price of USD $2500, giving an average reference price of around USD $2300 for the first USD $100mil.

That is more practical and realistic scenario for 2024.

3. For the balance of $200mil to be paid next year, gold price is likely to be in the range of USD $2500 - $3000 per oz, giving an effective average reference price of around USD $2700-$2750 for the USD $200mil paid in 2025.

4. So, you have first USD $100mil deposit paid in 2024 with average reference price of around USD $2300 for around 869k oz ($100mil ÷ $2300 ÷ 5% = ~869k oz) of gold purchase.

Note: you can check and verify this number by doing the reverse calculation: 869k oz × average price of $2300 × 5% deposit = around $100mil.

and the second lot of USD $200mil deposit paid in 2025 with average reference price of around USD $2750 for around 1.455mil oz of gold purchase.

5. So, this is the more likely and more realistic and more practical result: if Quantum is to go with full commitment of USD $300mil pre-payment package with $100mil paid in 2024 and $200mil paid in 2025, totalling USD $300mil, the total gold purchase contracts will likely amount to 869000oz + 1455000oz = 2.324mil oz. Not 3mil oz. And this is good for Besra.


So, forget about 3mil oz in this new record gold prices reality. It will be more likely USD $300mil for 2.3mil-2.4mil oz.


USD $300mil pre-payment as 5% deposit for 2.3mil oz to 2.4mil oz gold purchase. That's what it is. That's how I see it.



NOTE: the only way Quantum can take all 3mil oz of gold purchase off-take in this new gold price reality is to increase its pre-payment from USD $300mil to around $380mil-$400mil by itself or with its partner.