Iron Ore:Whyare prices falling? Who is the best performer? Thebenchmark iron ore price has fallen from ~$135/t at end-Jan to ~$116/tcurrently with construction activity & BF production in China slow topick up post CNY due to cold weather and property data still weak. We note ironore inventory at ports lifted last week by +7Mt (the largest weekly increasesince 2019) and the speculative net long positioning on the Dalian is falling;steel margins in China also remain depressed. However, the absolute levels ofinventory remains lower y/y and pig iron ore production (reported byCISA) has picked up in February; iron ore shipments from traditional marketsare also flat YTD with Brazil strong & Australia weak. While recent trendsare a concern, we still expect construction activity in China to pick up at endMarch (supported by more stimulus post NPC in early March). We expect iron oredemand to be broadly stable in 2024 and supply growth to be limited; thisunderpins our US$120/t forecast for 2024. We estimate BHP's spot FCF yield at8%, RIO at 8% and Vale at 13%. We prefer RIO & Vale near term over BHP dueto valuation & operational performance. Source:UBS
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Last
$36.12 |
Change
0.010(0.03%) |
Mkt cap ! $183.3B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $36.04 | $36.31 | $35.98 | $245.7M | 6.796M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1083 | $36.08 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $36.15 | 10703 | 3 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.15pm 26/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
| BHP (ASX) Chart |