Hi guys,I have said before that i believe that the first bid is...

Hi guys,

I have said before that i believe that the first bid is not the last and we have still a fair chance that this will be the case with UMC as well.

We have still a few parties out there who could be game to make an offer, like CRM, RIO , FMG that already three contestants next the BHP.

Not bad at all, but what about some others which we have not thought about???

First of all I do not think that the chinese are going to give up that easy, they will NOT just walk away from this deal imho.

And they have a lot of leverage to succeed even wiht the governement restrictions on foreign investment.

And why??

Because the two majors being RIO and BHP want their cake and eat it, and do not give on little bit about the juniors with stranded iron ore deposits.

As shown, the only thing they are prepared to do is take them over at bargain prices because they have pushed them in a corner by not willing to make a rail deal with them.

So where is the aussie help a mate tradition??? Gone and certainly not part of the pilbara iron ore majors.

Twiggy has at least made an effort to come half way and have given juniors a chance to use their railways.

So the Chinese could now be seen as saviours and I am sure they would like to be seen in that way, but ofcourse its only because their interest afford them to do so.

They could still make a strong alliance with the juniors and make a counter offer and pull UMC in this alliance.

Being the chinese as we know them, I am sure that they are looking at this scenario.

But we still have Rio who could make a move, unless they have already decided with BHP how to carve up the pilbara between them.

FMG is always there and I am sure that Twiggy is looking and crunching the numbers as the quality ore from railway could be a salvation for their ore as blending material.

The under-used railway could easily carry the railway ore to port in this scenario and if the other UMC tenements show up with the goods, extending the current FMG railway line would certainly be an option.

I am sure that a better offer in only script or a mixture of script and cash would be welcomed by UMC holders.

And then an offer from the outside , which could be very possible and I will keep that one open for all to guess.

What I would like to mention here for those who are not familliar with take-overs is that it may take some time before another bid comes in.

It could take weeks even more then a month, so I would not become to frustrated if we do not see an other offer in the next few weeks to come.

And for those who do not know this, most take-overs have seen another bidder come in with the directors supporting the first bid, as is the case now with UMC.

And the major holders like THX will make sure that they will enjoy the upside from a better bid and not just hand their holdings over to BHP.

Good luck guys

The party has only just begon.

jojo