jbahs,
FYI, BHP are keen to discuss Mine Gate Sales. They simply want to keep control of the railway to themselves. MGS is the best compromise.
BHP/RIO would fight allowing other company rail cars every step of the way right up to the supreme court. That will take years.
I tend to agree that the FMG deal makes sense.
If you want to analyse the likelihood of MGS with BHP, then it would be beneficial for you to learn as much about their RGP5 project as possible, including the timetable for double tracking between Marillana and Port Hedland.
Joel
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