BHP's 50% share could be circa $1.9b, based on SMR market capitalisation and tonnage
Assumptions
1) the market is about right with SMR
2) public and private valuations are similar; in theory, private should be cheaper; however this will be more competitive than SMR / BMC given SMR success
3) some uplift in BHP production for weather but not culture; SMR production flat
4) an acquirer cannot fix operational problems or increase tonnage; none of this synergy that acquirers sell their shareholders
A mug punters guess without access to the dataroom
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