Exacting from Hopeful:"the CEO said supply was down in 2022 due...

Exacting from Hopeful:

"the CEO said supply was down in 2022 due to bad weather, and demand was up due to geopolitical concerns such as the Russian situation. At the end of 2022, coal and gas stockpiles rose in Europe and Asia: the winter was nowhere near as cold as expected. It is normalising, but it takes a while for stocks to run down. We will start to see some recovery.Webcast questions included re thermal and met coal markets in the past month. The CEO said Europe was overstocked, LNG prices are below coal so LNG is receiving preference, and there's a bit of an oversupply to the ASia-Pacific given South African and Colombian mines are now sending coal to the latter, historically YAL's markets. (Not good for the short term SP of YAL)."



Now read between the lines, we have a potential serious over supply issue, coupled with artificially shorter term suppressed demand.

Given this the last thing I would be looking at is short term movements in the futures, either up or down.

What I would be focussing on is
a) coal is not a rare commodity. Its plentiful. Just because Australia is going bonkers on global warming and restricting new traditional energy sources, doesn't mean other countries will act the same.
b) competitor countries around the world that aren't shackled to the same exent, will be trying to flog off their coal into the global market.

All of this into a macro market, that look to maybe have some over supply because of 2022 problems.

Who knows?
But I play to win, both return on my capital, but always return of my capital.

I am a happy chappy, I am still making money on YAL given dividends received, and I have both made money on NHC and WHC and most importantly for the later two my capital is now off the table as well So that's now no risk on NHC and WHC, all the profit is safely in my bank account with no capital left on the table.

But future additional capital allocated to YAL, means I need MORE profit and protection of any additional capital.

Its not rocket science guys, this game is quite simple.