I thought this was poetic this morning on Commsec coverage.I...

I thought this was poetic this morning on Commsec coverage.
I think it is a good lesson for the new traders in the forum even with the LVR trade in which apparently after having a chat to CommSecOne this morning, over 60% off retail traders are LVR...that in itself is kind of scary....never the less, this mornings note went a little like this.
When we experience erratic pricing dislocation one must ask themselves fundamental questions to quantify...albeit my words in layman's terms for newbies or other wise...
Has there been a systemic event ? "NO"
Is the economic picture still largely intact ? "Yes" No banking failure, no Black Swan event.
Should there have been either of the 2, money would be running into safe havens and whilst there has been a drop in T-BILLS & higher in price, lower in yields has not eventuated to a point of lets say .75 over cash rate. A 2 year TB was up whilst everything else went down, to me that indicates going forward another form of money being Commodities reflective of lets say 18 months will be higher than todays pricing mechanism. If there was something very wrong in the system like a GFC scenario it would have fallen at least 1.0% over floating cash rate. And hence gold went down. The USD went down so no haven there either for systemic risk.
We have growth in world economies and I/O is still in demand from approx 900MT PA increasing to 1.1MT PA which I quantify is already there with a 5% + upside within 24 months.
The carry trade in Japan bounced back so most of the shorts covered from the carry trade yesterday which no doubt would have been the reason for such a huge fall in Tokyo. In my opinion. 20% is a big fall with Yen rising.
The VIX which of course is an insurance mechanism that investors take out on the options trade which measures the relationship between put options which navigates the down side protection and call options which is up side protection and that measure had its biggest spike since 1990 over night which I was watching along with the LIBOR which negates money being borrowed between banks at set rates, both of which moderated. That never happened win the GFC.
I don't see the US economy falling off a cliff. I don't see how all the henna pennies are covering a hard landing. New orders and manufacturing activity was higher pro rate which is also what I look for along with the Baltic dry Index.
I also think the DIV will be on par although possibly a 60% payout due to new costs coming on board.
RDD