So it uses long ones, 50 and 200 or quarterly and yearly view, which was true in sense of past 2 quarters, share price was trying to test investor line dma200, in relation to topic in early year whether central banks were able to control/manage inflation. We saw future rate was expecting 100 bps lower at the end of year.
If you add ma 5 (weekly) and ma 20 (monthly) on it, you may see 5 is now actually trying to break 20, perhaps in relation to recent debt ceiling/minimum tga/fiscal limit in past few weeks, in which in my numbers, I believed they must increase debt again. Combined with other factors, few weeks back, I saw inflation and rate were rather raising/bouncing and not going lower.
That was why, when I saw index and cash tend to continue to raise (UP) while bhp to test ma200 and below (DOWN) and seeing inflation to increase again, this divergence may offer some potential. I didn't know what was the bottom but my thesis was that below ma200 with extreme divergence (e.g. nasdaq up 80% and bho down 15%) should offer very large potential value from divergence between less risky and risky assets. Since nasdaq may still have potential to break top (~50%), in my opinion, it should rather change the course of this risky asset to move up again (inflation/higher rate).
However since it's just starting past few weeks, you may not be able to see with ma 50 and 200. You would need 5 and 20.
Yes ma is quite powerful and one of my favourites, other than macd and rsi with focus on their divergence, since I'm also a trend follower.
US NFP is very strong and we should see big inflow around China/HK today, it may support my inflation come back thesis few weeks ago. However yes if recession is really very near or fiscal is worst, ma50 and 200 may start to drag shorter periods down. For now I think its probability is low.
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