I have done some numbers lol here we go again. pe ratios can be defined in several ways, over heated where they dont represent future growth eg 20 to 25, bullish 15 to 18; or consevative long term averages 7 to 14. For the purpose of this exersise I will choose two pe ratios 14 and 17 one being conservative and the other bullish.
Bhp earnings $7 billion and shares on issue 5.7 billion gives bhp and (earnings per share of $1.22). A pe ratio of 14 would make share price target of $17.20 and with pe ratio of 17 $20.87. I would favour a price target of $17.20 short term because Profits should decline next year as China demands more cuts in iron ore prices. Futhermore manny chinese steel producers are buying into australian coal companies and taking them over for their own coal supplies so they are not dictated to by the market. Chinese companies this year alone will gain control of around 20 billion plus tons of australian coal.
If you look at chinese steel producers pe ratio, some of these companies will be supplying the rail network. They are massive steel companies with a pe ratio of 14, if chinese companies are conservative in a bullish cycle why would australian companies remain overheated. Simply put the austrailian market tends to over value stocks. We are more bullish than china about china lol. The boom has busted and because china remains in growth doesnt mean that a boom will continue. China is taking market control of resources to control prices.
I do continue to hold this company but my sentiment is sell, that might be a contadiction, whats new I stuck with the market even when I forcasted a crash. LOL
BHP Price at posting:
$38.10 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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